What does the FED and the little boy and the dike have in common?

Some claim that time is nature's way of preventing everything from happening at once. Whoever "they" are, who is likely to be just one person these days, clearly hasn't tried living in the United States in 2023 because everything is occurring at once right now.

History teaches us that monetary depreciation, price increases, and a decline in corporate activity are all related. Even if a slowdown in economic activity is all but guaranteed, interest rates will keep rising as a result of the falling purchasing power of fiat currencies. The monetary authorities have little control over it, thus a cyclical banking crisis, involving both central and commercial banking institutions this time, is inevitable.

Do you remember when people were offering to buy homes for more than the listing price? Sure you do, it was just a short while ago. (What could go wrong?)

The beginning of the new year brought with it the hope that the long, painful period of high inflation was finally coming to an end, but that possibility seems very remote at this time. The U.S. economy is not healthy.

There is a strong effort by the government to convince us that inflation is heading in the right direction. This effort falls woefully short whenever we buy the things that make our lives work. I could provide countless examples, but since you buy stuff you know exactly what I am writing about.

Whether the US labor market is actually as strong as the most recent employment report suggests, or whether finicky adjustments are getting in the way, has economists scratching their heads.

The decline in real disposable income, which decreased by almost $1 trillion in 2022, is the most alarming finding in the GDP report.

It is necessary to remember that investment markets have cycles, much like electricity.

There’s a 50% chance current expectations are correct in assuming the Fed will boost its benchmark rate to about 5%, and a 50% chance that the central bank will have to go to 6%, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said in an interview aired Tuesday on Fox Business.

A man named Michelangelo once said “Genius is eternal patience”. The great John Templeton had this to say about gaining knowledge; “If we become increasingly humble about how little we know, we may be more eager to search”.

Regarding these fundamental causes of systematically increasing costs, the Fed has very little power. Their sole means of control is to raise the cost of capital and credit, which complements the other structural causes by adding an inflationary source. No cycle or trend lasts forever, and the 40-year uptrend has ended. Now a different cycle and trend is developing.

“For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. And this will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in swaddling cloths and lying in a manger.”

Have you ever discovered a leak in your home? The only thing worse than discovering your water supply is not working for some reason, is finding out you have water where it should not be. Your first thought might be to stop the leak, followed quickly with concern about potential damage to your home.

Market cycles have always been a part of our world. Markets move in four phases; understanding how each phase works and how to benefit is the difference between floundering and flourishing.

You probably remember some of the lyrics of the Kenny Rogers hit, “The Gambler”. Kenny was not the first person who recorded the song, but if you asked virtually anyone alive today they would surely credit Kenny Rogers as the person who first brought it to life.

Any pilot knows the importance of knowing what direction wind is blowing. Wind affects flight times, but the landing part is when things can get pretty tricky. Wind gusts do some challenging things when a flight is about to land.

The economy has its own set of “indicators”. As the Federal Reserve attempts to control inflation with a series of swift interest rate hikes, a frequently ignored economic indicator revealed on Friday that the U.S. economy is either already in or headed for a recession.

While Disney is but one company that could cause many people to avoid BlackRock and Vanguard, a careful study of their holdings may cause you to wonder just how your investments are being handled. ESG investing, investing in companies you personally feel go against your moral values, and the huge loss of dollars should all be considered.

Year after year of cheap money was the basis of the issue. For ten years, Wall Street drank cheap money, and it will eventually result in another financial crisis.

We have a very important election in just a few days, is it possible the folks who have been running our country may want to distort the truth about our economic world?