The News; Where To Begin?
We have a very important election in just a few days, is it possible the folks who have been running our country may want to distort the truth about our economic world?
No matter how fast the economy grew in the third quarter of this year, it’s very unlikely to be a sign of sustained growth.
The rate of the economy's growth is a subject on which there is much debate. Econoday's polled forecasters' average prediction is a 2.3 percent annualized rate. However, the estimates' range is substantial—from 1.4 to 3.1 percent. As unpredictable statistics have been arriving over the past month, many of those forecasts have changed drastically.
The GDPNOW model from the Atlanta Fed had mostly followed the Bank of America estimate, but with a little more volatility. It increased from less than 1% at the beginning of the month to 2.9 % last week. Contrary to what happened in the Bank of America GDP tracker, confusingly, the most recent data increased it to 3.1 percent.
This discrepancy firstly reveals how erratic and unpredictable the economic data has grown to be. The Atlanta Fed and Bank of America's GDP trackers produced estimates with a 35 percent difference between them while using a lot of the same data. The two models do, of course, use slightly different data. While the Bank of America tracker reportedly relies on both proprietary data and the official releases, GDPNOW from the Atlanta Fed is exclusively based on information that has been made available to the general public.
The third quarter expansion is actually a head fake in the economy, which is the reality. In the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year, the economy will almost surely resume contracting as consumer spending slows, housing becomes an even bigger drag, and business investment retreats in preparation of the Fed rate hike-induced recession. - Breitbart
According to The Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey
Demand has cratered as inflation gets worse. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond survey released a few days ago, the manufacturing sector in the central Atlantic region of the United States resumed contracting in October after momentarily stabilizing the month before.
The index of general business conditions for the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity decreased from zero in September to minus 10 in October. A reduction in activity is indicated by readings below zero.
The outcomes weren't what we had anticipated. A drop to a minus three was what economists had predicted.
The Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and the majority of West Virginia, is the basis for the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index.
According to the poll, there has been a six-month decline or stagnation.
New orders and shipments, the two main indicators of demand in the survey, fell throughout the course of the month. Seven consecutive months have seen a decline in the new orders index. The reading in October was the lowest since May 2020. Shipments fell after recovering to a positive level in September.
Inflationary pressures increased despite indications of declining demand. After easing in September, the average growth rates of prices received and paid both surged once more in October. Expectations for both for the following 12 months have also marginally increased since September.
The New York Fed revealed this week that its measure of manufacturing activity has declined for three months running, moving further into contractionary negative territory. The indicator decreased under significant inflation, mirroring the Richmond Fed poll, with the prices paid index climbing nine points to 48.6 and the prices received index remaining stable at a high level. Inflation is becoming worse as demand is declining, according to the Philly Fed poll. - More
