Why the Housing Market Hit the Brakes

Every facet of the economy, from consumer sentiment to government policies, plays a pivotal role in shaping the landscape of investment market cycles. By closely observing each economic element, we can gain a holistic understanding of underlying forces, potential risks, and emerging opportunities.

This comprehensive view not only aids in making informed decisions but also helps in predicting and navigating market cycles. Ignoring any single facet can lead to a myopic perspective, potentially missing out on crucial signals that indicate shifts in the investment climate. In essence, to truly grasp the nuances of market cycles, one must be attuned to the interconnected dance of all economic variables.

Entire Housing Market May Have Shrunk 20% to 25%.

Although precise estimates are difficult to come by, we may estimate from the data we do have that this year's property market as a whole, including buyers and sellers, has shrunk by 20% to 25% in comparison to years prior to the epidemic.

With prices down slightly year-over-year and 20% to 25% less demand, sales, inventory, and new listings, the market is essentially balanced at this smaller size since buyers and sellers have disappeared in equal numbers.

And we know who they are - homeowners trapped in a 3% mortgage who are currently unable to purchase and hence unable to sell.

Because they might have to finance a new home at roughly 7%, which would increase the monthly payment on the same size mortgage by 50% or more, many homeowners with the 3% mortgages they currently have are prevented from doing so.

Thus, they are not making purchases. They don't even bother to look. There may be 20% to 25% fewer purchasers now that they have withdrawn from the market.

The inventory decreases by the same amount as the number of purchasers who have departed at the same time as these individuals who are unable to acquire a new property are also unable to sell their present home because they are still residing in it. Fewer buyers and less inventory are both present.

Unless they want to give up their sacrosanct 3% mortgage, which is starting to seem more and more like a gift from God, these homeowners with 3% mortgages don't want to, or are unable to, upsize, downsize, move to a different place, move closer to the kids or parents, or do anything else. - Wolf Street

Liberal Media Lying About Inflation

Inflation wasn't supposed to be a huge concern, the mainstream media, many "experts," and politicians used to tell you not all that long ago. However, more recent data continue to paint a different picture. This week, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks rises in wholesale prices, registered an increase of 9.6% on an annualized basis. The annualized CPI rate of inflation rose 6.8% last week, which is the highest pace since 1982.

However, you don't need that information because you already know from your own experience buying necessities for your family that costs for goods and services are rising quickly.

One of the major lies of the last few of years has been that of inflation, which was the inescapable result of very concrete events. Consequences were inevitable when the Federal Reserve pumped trillions of dollars into the market. You now have the ideal (and, once more, perfectly anticipated) storm of more money chasing a decreasing supply of goods and services.

Add to that the federal stimulus expenditure, with lockdowns and other government policies affecting the labor market and supply chains. You don't need a degree in economics to infer that greater pricing would result.

Perhaps there would be less support for government spending, whether it be the many COVID-related measures or the new "Build Back Better" social expenditure agenda, if the typical American anticipated that these policies would cause inflation.

As if you can't tell what is happening when you go to pay your bills, it was revealed that the Biden administration has met with major news outlets to "reshape economic coverage" as inflation has become a burden for the average American.

Regardless of whether the economic spin is intended to downplay incompetence, safeguard government spending priorities, or simply maintain consumer sentiment, it is demeaning.

The fact is that those in charge of making billion-dollar judgments are either utterly incompetent or liars. Regardless of which one it is or how the media tries to portray it, the conclusion is the same, and every American is paying a high price as a result. - Carol Roth

Elites Want You To Own Nothing

Several of the most well-known financial institutions, including BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world and an advocate of ESG principles, Blackstone, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Capital One, among others, have invested hundreds of millions of dollars to support businesses that buy single-family homes and rent them back to middle- and working-class Americans.

For the first time, large corporations have been purchasing single-family homes in large quantities, something that people and families had been doing for decades as a way to pass down wealth from generation to generation.

This phenomenon is brand-new. Just over ten years ago, meaningful institutional money in single-family rentals didn't exist!

Now, there are corporations that have purchased tens of thousands of single-family homes across the United States with the specific intent of renting the American Dream back to you, preventing you from owning anything and transferring all of your prospects to build wealth to them.

Corporations purchased 80,000 homes in the fourth quarter of 2021 alone, which accounted for nearly 18% of all single-family homes sold in that quarter. Even though some of those corporate buyers were smaller landlords who also had corporate entities, the total is still astonishing and is up by more than 24,000 units from the same quarter the year before.

Additionally, according to statistics from CoreLogic, an estimated 22% of all US properties were bought by investors in 2022. That means an investor buys more than one out of every five houses.

The middle class and working class are the primary targets of this activity, which is made possible by Fed and governmental policy. It hinders young Americans' attempts to own property. In fact, despite making more money when adjusted for inflation than other generations did at the same age, millennials are creating less wealth and their chances of realizing the American Dream of owning a home are dwindling. - Carol Roth

Capital Consumption: Washington DC's Empty Offices Still Powering High Electricity Bills

The evacuation of federal headquarters during the COVID-19 crisis appears to have become permanent and costly with up to 90% of several agency headquarters empty, according to a federal audit.

At least 6 of 24 Washington area headquarters are 90% empty, including several that manage federal office space and employees such as the General Services Administration and the Office of Personnel Management.

The audit from the Government Accountability Office found that just six agencies were operating with half of their staff in the office during the first three months of 2023, the latest sign that efforts to get federal employees back into the office after the coronavirus crisis and after years of encouraging telework have failed. - Washington Examiner

Practically every agency headquarters is something like 80% empty.

Overall, Uncle Sam owns or leases 511 million square feet. That includes some 1,500 buildings and 7,685 leases. It costs $7 billion a year to maintain buildings and lease others, said GAO.

The auditing agency urged headquarters to consider consolidating or dumping space and to even consider joining with other agencies to share space.

But many rejected that advice. "One official said their leadership is reluctant to share headquarters space with other agencies because it could lower their perceived standing as a cabinet-level agency," said the audit report.

One thing the audit also notes is that these empty buildings waste a lot of electricity even with no one in them.  So as the President tries to shove us into green vehicles and pay more at the pump to bankroll his energy transition, he's busy burning electricity ... on nothing.

Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana grilled Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra on why the parking lots were so empty at 10:30 A.M. on a weekday at many of his agency's offices.

"What we make sure we care about is that they're performing and they're delivering," Becerra said.

It's obvious that these personalities see the large structures with the names of their agencies as representations of their own authority and significance. That will make it more difficult to get rid of these expensive hulks and husks.

But if nothing else, they need to get rid of them to save the taxpayers money. The federal government already spends too much money, which has an impact on inflation. Getting rid of unnecessary buildings and trimming the fat in government is perhaps the only way to revive our economy.

You can be sure that countries like China and Russia are taking note of the fact that this situation is not a symbol of national vigor, growth, or anything else beneficial.

In the heart of Washington, empty structures loom, emblematic of more than just vacant space – they represent an oversight in fiscal responsibility and the broader economic choices our nation grapples with.

It's essential we recognize and rectify this wastefulness, and redefine our values not by the grandeur of buildings but by the prudence of our decisions.