Let’s Be Clear

No matter what you may believe or have heard, investment markets have cycles. Let me be clear, we want to see prices plummet. As I hope you know, the world around us today is in a lot of bad places.

This is why we are defensive and look toward safety, and our plan is to be ready to take advantage of the following recovery cycle, when that cycle becomes apparent.

This is a time for patience, and for having a plan in place to be safe. We have been working on this plan for years.

Let’s talk “Cycles” for a moment

When electrical cycles fail, the consequences can vary significantly based on the specific system, device, or infrastructure that's affected. Electrical cycles, also known as alternating current (AC) cycles, are fundamental to the functioning of many electrical and electronic devices. Here are a few potential consequences of their failure:

1. Device Malfunction: Many household appliances and devices rely on electrical cycles to function properly. If there's a failure, these devices might stop working or malfunction.

2. Data Loss: In computers and servers, an electrical cycle failure can lead to data loss or damage. Uninterrupted power supplies (UPS) often help mitigate this risk.

3. Industrial Shutdowns: Many industrial processes are heavily dependent on electrical power. A failure could cause significant disruptions, leading to production stoppages and potential financial losses.

4. Power Outages: In a broader sense, failure in electrical cycles can lead to power outages in homes, businesses, and entire regions.

5. Infrastructure Damage: In extreme cases, electrical cycle failures could damage the electrical grid itself. This could be due to things like overloading or power surges, which might damage transformers and other infrastructure.

6. Safety Hazards: Electrical cycle failures can pose safety hazards. For example, they could potentially cause electrical fires or explosions in electrical equipment.

7. Impacts on Healthcare: Hospitals and healthcare centers rely heavily on a stable electrical supply. A failure could disrupt medical equipment, endangering patients' lives.

I have been on the property at Forest Park a few hundred times, and it always amazes me just how much the power company keeps in spare parts. Apparently, things break.

If the power company were to run a system or part for twice as long as it was designed, something may happen which would cause the power to not be very dependable until the problem was resolved. Worse still, even with all those spare parts at Forest Park, sometimes things happen where some other part is needed which was not in inventory already.

Case in point: About a year ago a restaurant was being located in the Athens area, and was to open in early Summer. As I drove by during the time, I could tell that opening was being delayed. I found out the restaurant needed more power to operate, but the power company had to get some part from South Korea. This delayed the opening for almost four months.

Things just seem to happen, even with some of the smartest folks and the best systems, sometimes the power just fails.

Back to Investment Cycles

We've all heard of market bubbles and many of us know someone who's been caught in one. Although there are plenty of lessons to be learned from past bubbles, market participants still get sucked in each time a new one comes around. A bubble is only one of several market phases, and to avoid being caught off-guard, it is essential to know what these phases are.

Markets move in four phases; understanding how each phase works and how to benefit is the difference between floundering and flourishing.

Cycles are prevalent in all aspects of life; they range from the very short-term, like the life cycle of a June bug, which lives only a few days, to the life cycle of a planet, which takes billions of years.

The problem is that most investors and traders either fail to recognize that markets are cyclical, or forget to expect the end of the current market phase. Another significant challenge is that even when you accept the existence of cycles, it is nearly impossible to pick the top or bottom of one. But an understanding of cycles is essential if you want to maximize investment or trading returns. Here are the four major components of a market cycle and how you can recognize them.

The Accumulation Phase

This phase occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators (corporate insiders and a few value investors) and early adopters (smart money managers and experienced traders) begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. At this phase, valuations are very attractive, and general market sentiment is still bearish.

Articles in the media preach doom and gloom, and those who were long through the worst of the bear market have recently given up and sold the rest of their holdings in disgust.

However, in the accumulation phase, prices have flattened and for every seller throwing in the towel, someone is there to pick it up at a healthy discount. Overall market sentiment begins to switch from negative to neutral.

Mark-Up Phase

At this stage, the market has been stable for a while and is beginning to move higher. The early majority are getting on the bandwagon. This group includes technicians who, seeing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs, recognize market direction and sentiment have changed.

Media stories begin to discuss the possibility that the worst is over, but unemployment continues to rise, as do reports of layoffs in many sectors. As this phase matures, more investors jump on the bandwagon as fear of being in the market is supplanted by greed and the fear of being left out.

As this phase begins to come to an end, the late majority jump in and market volumes begin to increase substantially. At this point, the greater fool theory prevails. Valuations climb well beyond historic norms, and logic and reason take a back seat to greed. While the late majority are getting in, the smart money and insiders are unloading.

But as prices begin to level off, or as the rise slows down, those laggards who have been sitting on the sidelines see this as a buying opportunity and jump in en masse. Prices make one last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax when the largest gains in the shortest periods often happen. But the cycle is nearing the top. Sentiment moves from neutral to bullish to downright euphoric during this phase.

Distribution Phase

In the third phase of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous phase turns into a mixed sentiment. Prices can often stay locked in a trading range that can last a few weeks or even months.

For example, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) peaked in Feb. 2020, it traded down to the vicinity of its prior peak and stayed there over a period of several months.

But the distribution phase can come and go quickly. For the Nasdaq Composite, the distribution phase was less than a month long, as it peaked in Feb. 2020 and moved higher shortly thereafter.

When this phase is over, the market reverses direction. Classic patterns like double and triple tops, as well as head and shoulders patterns, are examples of movements that occur during the distribution phase.

The distribution phase is a very emotional time for the markets, as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear interspersed with hope and even greed as the market may at times appear to be taking off again. Valuations are extreme in many issues and value investors have long been sitting on the sidelines. Usually, sentiment slowly but surely begins to change, but this transition can happen quickly if accelerated by a strongly negative geopolitical event or extremely bad economic news.

Those who are unable to sell for a profit settle for a breakeven price or a small loss.

Mark-Down Phase

The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more than the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early markdown phase, give up or capitulate.

Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up. - Investopedia

As I have written here, here, here, and here, the Federal Reserve has been doing historic stuff to mess with the natural market cycles. Unlike 2008 when the FED was in position to lower rates to help the economy, this time the FED has been raising rates due the inflation it has caused.

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell". - Sir John Templeton