Jobs Report - Good News?

Having studied government reports for a couple of generations, I think it wise to be a little dubious when a rosy picture is being painted about anything when an important election is just around the corner.

It was demonstrated last month that there was a clear discrepancy between the Household and Establishment surveys, which together comprise the monthly jobs report. Since March, the former has been declining while the latter has been increasing each and every month.

Additionally, while multiple jobholders increased to almost all-time highs, full-time employment declined.

Think about the following: One the one hand, the widely watched establishment survey came in hot, not only soaring despite the US entering a technical recession last week, it printed at a 5 month high of 528K, a six-sigma beat versus consensus forecasts of 250K.

Many came to the conclusion that cries for a recession are premature since, after all, you can't enter a recession while jobs are growing by more than 500K. Wages also came in hotter than predicted, climbing 0.5 percent M/M or 5.2 percent Y/Y.

But when examining third-party data that measures the number of new employees laid off as well as new layoff events, both of which have skyrocketed since May but which surprise have not been reflected in BLS data, an issue arises for the second month in a row.

Since March, the Establishment Survey shows a gain of 1.680 million jobs, while the Household Survey shows an employment loss of 168K!

Further investigation reveals that both full-time, and part-time employment, are to blame for the decline in the number of people employed in the Household Survey. In actuality, the US has shed 141K full-time employees and 78K part-time workers since March.

Fewer individuals are employed, but more people are holding multiple jobs, a rotation that only the Household survey has been able to measure since it began in earnest in March.

The BLS data engineers have been trying to make the Establishment Survey seem legit, (possibly with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same incorrect methodology, as the Household Survey has remained static since March.

Even if the labor market is already beginning to falter, it will take the BLS a few more months of deviating from reality before government bureaucrats understand and acknowledge what is actually happening. - Wolf Street

When might the government “realize” their lack of integrity regarding these numbers?

Right after the midterm elections are over is the best bet in this situation. However, even then, this might be asking too much.